In terms of bang-for-the-buck, the Indians have had my favorite offseason in baseball. They have had one of the smartest front-offices for a while and have been my bandwagon (besides 2009-2010) when the Mariners fall out of contention. This offseason they didn't have a ton of budget space so they have made a ton of under-the-radar-moves, with the recent signing of Casey Kotchman being the biggest one of them all. Most of their transactions this offseason have been low risk/high reward deals, which is always hard to argue with. A lot of these have been Minor League Deals, but each of them looks like they have upside when you dig a little deeper.
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The recent trade of Russ Canzler is pretty much the Indians offseason in a nutshell. It took $100K for Canzler to wear a Cleveland uniform next season where he will hopefully get a chance to be a bench bat for the Indians out of Spring Training.
A lot of people have already stamped the Quad-A Label on him at 25 years old, without even getting a chance to show what he can do. He comes with some flaws, of course, namely his low-contact-rate. He has the tools to make up for that however, posting above average power and walk-rates throughout the minor leagues.
Here is Steve Slowinski's take on Canzler:
He certainly has question marks, but if it all comes together, I could see him becoming something similar to Phil Nevin-- a late-bloomer slugger without any defensive value.When you dig deeper, Russ Canzler is far from perfect. Even the most optimistic scouting reports on him state that he’s a poor defensive player (even at third and first base), and many scouts question his bat speed and athleticism. These aren’t concerns that will show up in Triple-A stats, but they could make it difficult to translate successfully to the majors. If you can’t play defense and your bat speed makes it difficult to catch up to major league pitching, you’ll have a tough time hitting well enough to stick at first base in the majors.Does this mean Canzler is doomed for failure in the majors? No, certainly not – there have been players with similar concerns that have adjusted to the majors (and one Dirk Hayhurst believes in him). But it does mean that Canzler’s odds of becoming a viable major-league first baseman are lower than his Triple-A stats lead us to believe.
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My favorite Indians acquisition has actually been the trade for Aaron Cunningham.
Drafted in the 6th round by the White Sox in the 2005 draft, the Indians will be his fifth team at just 25 years of age. Looking at his statistics, there isn't anything stands out. He looks like a 4th/5th outfielder who can give guys a day off but not do much else.
Cunningham's career.236/.305/.375 slash line won't wow anybody, especially without any other skill like defense or speed that sticks out. He has been pretty successful in the minor leagues, posting good numbers and acceptable rates throughout the years. Given his minor league and major league track record, its safe to assume he will put up a league average rates in just about every category with his strikeouts at about 18%, walk rates between 6-8%, and ISO between .130-.190. Like most fifth outfielders, nothing stands out as either good or bad.
He hasn't had much of a chance to show what he can do with just under 400 PA's over the last four years, but hopefully he'll be able to get some time with Cleveland given the recent health problems of Shin-Soo Choo and Grady Sizemore.
Aaron isn't a big guy either at 5-11/203 lbs, and his numbers have not shown he has much pop in his bat. I think we have to look beyond the numbers with this guy though. It may sound silly to base future performance off just one batted-ball, but in some cases it makes sense.
On September 19th, 2011, Aaron Cunningham hit a ball 459 feet. This was the thirtieth longest home run of last season in between names like Alex Rodriguez and Nelson Cruz.
One could make an argument Aaron Cunningham's career .144 ISO means he has no power in his bat, but you cannot fake that kind of power. One either has that ability or doesn't, and Aaron Cunningham showed that he has it.
Guys like Jacoby Ellsbury and Asdrubal Cabrera have power breakouts all the time, and there are usually explanations from prior years that this new power is not actually new at all.
Cunningham has always had the kind of pop that few big leaguers posses. It's just a matter of whether he can square-up the baseball on a more consistent basis. If he does that, he will become more than just the fifth outfielder people assume he is.
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In the wake of the whole Fausto Carmona/Robert Hernandez mess, the Indians acquired Kevin Slowey from the Rockies without ever getting a chance to demonstrate his absurd amount of fly balls in Coors Field.
Drafted in the second round of the 2005 MLB draft by the Minnesota Twins, Kevin Slowey has shown he can be a solid back-of-the-rotation starter. Working off an upper-80's fastball, SLOW(lol)ey won't strike a lot of guys out, but the thing he does very well is limit his walks. He had a tremendous 1.9% walk rate last year, forcing guys to put the ball in play.
Unfortunately, a fair amount of those balls in play wind up over the fence. Slowey's home run problem has always been his Achilles heal, and the only thing holding him back from being one of the better pitchers in the game. If he pitched in a park that suppressed home runs, then he would put up a pretty sparkly ERA, but Progressive Field is pretty neutral in the home run category. If he qualified, Kevin's 1.52 HR/9 would have been third worst among qualified starters. Out of the fifteen highest HR/9 last year, only one of them (Colby Lewis) had a WAR higher than 2. It is very, very difficult for a starting pitcher to succeed if they give up a lot of longballs, so the chances of Slowey becoming any better than a solid back-of-the-rotation starter is very slim.
This does not mean that Slowey is not an excellent addition to the Indians rotation, however. He was acquired for nothing, is young, and under contract for the next two years. Even his strikeout ability is a bit underrated as his career 17.5% rate isn't that far off from the 18.6% league average last season.
Despite his home run trouble, Slowey figures to be a big part of the Indians rotation.
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The 38 year old should slot into the middle of Cleveland's rotation in 2012. He was an ERA disaster last season, putting up a 5.05 ERA in 187 innings. His peripherals were impressive though as he put up a very good 3.70 FIP and 3.65 xFIP after having similar rates the year prior. He also put up the second highest ground ball percentage among qualified pitchers which shows Lowe can still keep the ball down and limit home runs allowed. Despite his ugly ERA last season, Lowe has shown he continues to be a productive starting pitcher, and if luck is on his side this season, look for him to be a big addition to the Indians rotation.
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Just recently, the Indians announced they signed Casey Kotchman to a 1 year- $3 million deal. This is really hard to argue with as he put up a 2.8 WAR last season and figures to be worth much more than the $3 million he will make next season. After hitting .217/.280/.336 line with the Mariners in 2010, Kotchman resurged with the Rays, hitting .306/.378/.422 while playing exceptional defense at first base.
His high average was partly the product of a very high BABIP, but Kotchman still profiles as the type of hitter who would put up a high BABIP, because of his high ground ball rates and line-drive ability. I don't think it would be unreasonable to expect him to put up something in the .300 range next season despite his low career mark of just .280.
Showing no platoon splits, he figures to be the everyday first baseman for the Indians in 2012. He won't hit a ton of home runs but he will provide gap-power while hitting for a high average and walking a good amount. You can expect him to hit something along the lines of .275/.340/.410 next season while saving a good amount of throwing errors with his glove at first base.
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Other notable acquisitions:
Jose De La Torre- After pitching in the Mets organization for the past five years, Jose De La Torre was signed by the Indians on a minor league deal. Before having Tommy John Surgery in 2007, De La Torre was among the Mets top relief prospects, working off a upper-90's fastball and a nasty slider. His velocity still isn't where it was prior to the injury, but he still gets it up there despite his small stature, occasionally hitting the mid 90's with his fastball. De La Torre has posted impressive strikeout rates at each stop in the minor leagues while keeping the relatively low as well. He pitched successfully for the Mets AAA team in both 2010 and last season. At just 26, he still has the chance to recover some of his prior velocity. Even if he doesn't, he figures to be a nice relief pitcher in the big leagues as early as next season.
Ryan Spilborghs- After being non-tendered by the Rockies this offseason the Indians picked him up on a minor league deal with an invite to Spring Training. He has been productive with his bat in past seasons while playing the corner outfield positions for Colorado. He hit .279/.360/.437 as recently as 2010 and hit .313/.407/.468 back in 2008. He will walk at a good rate (career 9.7%) and not hurt you with the strikeouts (18.5%) while posting respectable power numbers. I don't know what to think of his defense as he posted a -16.4 UZR in 2010, but has been around average in other years.
The big problem with him is his home/road splits. Coors Field, obviously, is famous for its hitter-friendly ballpark, and the ability to boost hitters offensive statistics. This is not any different with Ryan Spilborghs. For his career, he has a .306/.379/.483 (.373 wOBA) line at home and a .239/.313/.366 (.302 wOBA) line away from Coors. This is clearly a pretty significant platoon split, and expecting he just hits a lot better at home is silly. His away splits are probably more reflective of his true offensive ability, but it is hard to ignore the success he has had with the bat.
Ryan Rohlinger- After playing with the Giants organization for the past five years, Ryan Rohlinger was signed by the Indians on a minor league deal. Like most utility players, Ryan Rohlinger does not have a tool that stands out. I really like that he has shown he walks a lot and doesn't strikeout much, but there isn't really much to say beyond that. He has shown little power throughout the minors, although he did hit 18 homeruns in 2007, but that was back in A ball. At 28 years old, Rohlinger isn't going to be much more than what he is right now, but that doesn't mean he can't help out a major league club.
He would make a good utility infielder for a club looking to think outside the box, as he can play third base, short stop, and second base. In Spring Training I would see what he can do in the outfield as well, as more positional flexibility wouldn't hurt. His bat wouldn't be anything special, but he could put up respectable numbers if given the opportunity.
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The Indians have a very good team led by one of the best front offices. I look up and down the roster and I see no holes, which as a Mariner fan, makes me super jealous.
If they get healthy seasons out of Sizemore, Choo, and Santana, I see them taking out the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central.
Here is what the Indians should like on Opening Day:
Lineup vs. RHP
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Lineup vs. LHP
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1.
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CF Michael Brantley
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RF Shin-Soo Choo
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2.
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RF Shin-Soo Choo
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SS Asdrubal
Cabrera
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3.
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SS Asdrubal Cabrera
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C Carlos
Santana
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4.
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C Carlos Santana
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DH Travis
Hafner
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5.
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DH Travis Hafner
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LF
Shelley Duncan
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6.
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2B Jason Kipnis
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2B Jason Kipnis
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7.
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1B Casey Kotchman
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1B Casey Kotchman
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8.
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LF Grady Sizemore
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3B Lonnie
Chisenhall
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9.
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3B Lonnie Chisenhall
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CF Aaron
Cunningham
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Bench:
C Lou Marson
IF Jack Hannahan
IF Jason Donald
OF Aaron Cunningham
OF Shelley Duncan
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Bench: C Lou Marson IF Jack Hannahan
IF Jason Donald
OF Grady Sizemore OF Michael Brantley
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Rotation:
1. Ubaldo Jimenez
2. Justin Masterson
3. Derek Lowe
4. Josh Tomlin
5. Kevin Slowey
Bullpen:
CL Chris Perez
SU Vinnie Pestado
MI Joe Smith
MI Rafael Perez
MI Tony Sipp
MU Zach McAllister
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