Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Updated 2012 offseason plan


Trade Kyle Seager to Padres for Will Venable, Ernesto Frieri:
The Padres are looking for middle infield help and Seager fits that bill, and the home park. He could share time with Hudson or Bartlett in 2012, then has a clear path at second base once their contracts are up after the season. 
Will Venable brings us a perfect platoon partner with Casper Wells. He is currently at the bottom of the  Quentin/Maybin/Blanks/Denorfia/Kotsay pile in San Diego.  He was on my mind as a potential trade candidate, and once Dave made his case, he sounded like just the kind of player the M's should target. 
Venable, 29, is a career .272/.336/.435 hitter on the road. Hitting at Petco park (a notorious death zone for LH hitters) has made his overall offense statistics look a lot worse than his true ability. Basically all his power is to right field, where Safeco has proven to help left-handed pull hitters in the past. 
That and his ability to fill in for Gutierrez at center field from time-to-time, make him a perfect fit for the Mariners in my opinion. 
Ernesto Frieri is also a very intriguing player. He has quietly had two very good seasons out of the Padres bullpen the last 2 years, posting a 3.28 FIP last year with a 2.98 FIP the year prior. He has had one of the highest strikeout rates in baseball without classic strikeout stuff. His average fastball last year was 92.0 mph, but he kept hitters off-balance with his slider and curveball. He could very easily step into the closer role if/when League is dealt at the July 31st deadline. 



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Trade Charlie Furbush, Trayvon Robinson to Mets for Daniel Murphy:
The Tigers and Mets were discussing a deal that would send Andy Dirks to the Mets and Murphy to the Tigers, although the trade fell through. I thought this was interesting because Andy Dirks isn't that good while Daniel Murphy is. The Mets were reportedly interested in Dirks because he could play all three outfield positions. 
Enter Trayvon Robinson. Robinson still has that prospect shine, and while I have zero faith in him, another team is probably willing to give him a shot. Charlie Furbush could also appeal to the Mets as a pitcher that might succeed in the NL, and the Mets are short on starting position. I like Furbush more than most but I would give him up for Daniel Murphy in a heartbeat. Murphy has a career line of .292/.347/.441 in 1,130 PA's in the majors. He can play a good thirdbase, hits left-handed and is still young at 26 years of age. He doesn't really have any platoon splits, so he could become a cheap, productive everyday third baseman for the Mariners.


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Trade Miguel Olivo to Twins for Nate Roberts:
This is more than a dump than anything else. I don't want Olivo. The Twins were reportedly interested in him around the Winter Meetings and hopefully talks pick back up. I would rather have a catching platoon of Jaso and Montero with Chris Gimenez as a third catcher and outfield depth.
 Nate Roberts would be a good return though, as a potential sleeper prospect.  He's a 21 year old left handed hitting outfielder and hit .302/.443/.446 last year in A ball. John Sickels rated him as a C+ prospect mentioning his plus on-base ability and questionable power. He isn't a top prospect, but to me. he certainly is an interesting one.
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Trade Mike Carp for Tony Sanchez, Chris Resop:
This is probably the one that most Mariner fans would have problems with. I think Mike Carp deserves more playing time than he would get next year with the Mariners, and the Pirates seem like a perfect fit. The Pirates are currently in search of a first baseman, and will most likely go with some kind of McGehee/Alvarez/FA rotation between third base and first base. Bringing in Carp allows McGehee to switch back between third base and first base when Carp or Alvarez are struggling or need a day off. Carp could also allow platoon in the corner outfield or provide a backup. 
Tony Sanchez was picked by the Pirates #4 overall in the 2009 draft. Since then, the Mariners have been linked to the young catcher a couple times. I asked Jason Churchill over Twitter if a Carp/Sanchez swap would make sense and he said the Pirates would hang up the phone. I disagree with him on this though. Sanchez has failed to impress scouts and isn't that strong of a prospect anymore in the eyes of many. I like him a lot though, and believe he is capable of being a starting catcher very soon. He doesn't hit for a ton of power, but he walks some, doesn't strikeout much and has strong defense behind the plate.    
Chris Resop is also pretty interesting. Like Ernesto Frieri, he has a pretty high strikeout rate, coming in at a 25.6% or 10.21 K/9 depending on how you prefer to look at it. His walk rate was 9.8% or 3.88 BB/9, which is pretty good for a relief pitcher that racks up so many strikeouts. The 28 year old right-hander threw an average fastball of 93.3 mph last year, mixing it with his curveball and occasional changeup. Resop had a 4.39 ERA last year, though his FIP of 3.67 and xFIP of 3.53 show his true performance was much better. Resop, Frieri, and League would make pretty good late inning options for Wedge in high pressure situations. 

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Sign Edwin Jackson to 4 year/$44 million:
Since Prince has signed, I am a little disappointed the Mariners have not been linked to Jackson. One would think they have some money left over having not signed Fielder. They could just be keeping things quiet though. The payroll right now is at about $82 million, which is a huge step back from where it was the past. I think the payroll is lower than last year but not $15 million lower, so the team presumably has about $10 million left to spend. Anyways, paying Edwin Jackson $11 million for the next four years would be a steal. He is apparently more likely to sign a one year deal, but I'm guessing he would rather be locked up for the next four years rather than hitting the free agent market next year in a very strong starting pitching market. Adding years would seemingly lower the salary, and $11 million a year seems plausible given the lack-of-interest he has received this off season. I wouldn't be concerned with the years, as he is just 28, and pitchers don't tend to have steep declines in production right after age 30 the way hitters do. If he gets bitten by the injury bug and needs Tommy John or something, then this contract could hurt a little. That kind of risk is involved with every deal for a pitcher however, and Jackson has shown he is a durable with no future signs of injury.


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I would want this hypothetical team to look something like this: 


Lineup vs. RHP                                    
Lineup vs. LHP
1.
LF Venable
2B Ackley
2.
RF Ichiro 
RF Ichiro
3.
2B Ackley
DH Smoak
4.
1B Smoak
C Montero
5.
3B Murphy 
1B Murphy
6.
DH Montero
LF Wells  
7.
C Jaso    
CF Gutierrez
8.
CF Gutierrez
SS Ryan   
9.
SS Ryan
3B Figgins

Bench:
UTIL Chone Figgins
IF Luis Rodriguez
OF Casper Wells
C/OF Chris Gimenez
Bench:                                  C John Jaso                        IF Luis Rodriguez            OF Will Venable          C/OF Chris Gimenez




Rotation:
Felix Hernandez
Edwin Jackson
Jason Vargas
Hisashi Iwakuma
Hector Noesi

Bullpen:
Blake Beavan
Shawn Kelley
Tom Wilhelmsen
Ernesto Frieri
George Sherril
Chris Resop 
Brandon League




I think my proposed team would be capable of 75-80 wins with a potential for even more if a couple things go right. That kind of season would excite fans and sell more tickets. It could put the Mariners back into contention when big contracts come off the board next year. I realize none of these trades will happen in real life, but it just shows that the Mariners are not as far from a respectable team than most seem to believe. 
I would be very upset if the current Mariners roster is the same on opening day. Seattle fans need a glimmer of hope. They need to believe this team is close to going to the playoffs. The current roster is more of the same and wouldn't really show the Mariners are any closer to contention than they were last season. I really hope Z has another trick up his sleeve, because this current team just won't cut it next year. 

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